In the past 2018, for the new energy battery industry, "this is the best era and the worst era."

2018 is "the outbreak of new energy vehicles", "the rise of new car manufacturers", "large-scale decommissioning of power batteries", "mass production of high-nickel 811 material batteries", "development of China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry", "China Power Grid The "first year" such as the development of side energy storage is also the "cold winter" of these industries.

2019 has already started, for the new energy battery industry, "to be or not to be, this is a question worthy of consideration by the entire industry chain."

In 2019, the benefits brought by policy subsidy dividends are about to be exhausted, the new energy automobile industry is facing a critical period of market volume, and industrial chain companies are beginning to face the big test of marketization. Overall, in 2019, the six major trends of the new energy battery industry will become more prominent: first, the domestication of international competition and the internationalization of domestic competition; Fourth, the smoke of subsidy is gradually disappearing, and market-oriented competition has begun; fifth, charging piles are upgraded to the direction of charging network, and a new round of "staking land" is started; sixth, the sense of urgency for battery recycling and echelon utilization is increasing day by day.

1. Internationalization of international competition and internationalization of domestic competition

As the largest automobile country in the world in terms of production and sales of automobiles for ten consecutive years, China's output of new energy vehicles has also ranked first in the world for the fourth consecutive year. Both increased by 500,000 vehicles. For any multinational company in the new energy battery industry chain, the Chinese market is undoubtedly a very attractive "big cake".

It is undisputed that in 2019 and for a long time to come, China will still be the main battlefield of the global new energy battery industry competition, and the trend of "domesticization of international competition and internationalization of domestic competition" will become increasingly obvious.

According to the website of the Ministry of Finance, starting from January 1, 2019, the provisional tax rate for the import of lithium-ion battery cells for new energy vehicles will be cancelled, and the most-favored-nation tax rate will be resumed. The provisional import tax rate of 8% and 10% respectively for imported new energy vehicle power battery cells and systems will be restored to the 12% most-favored-nation tax rate. In other words, importing batteries is not encouraged, but foreign companies are encouraged to build factories in China to produce batteries. After the relaxation of restrictions, foreign manufacturers such as Japan's Panasonic, South Korea's LG Chem, and Samsung SDI have announced to increase battery production capacity in China.

In addition, at the beginning of the new year, the first wholly foreign-owned project in China's new energy vehicle field after the liberalization of foreign equity ratios - the Tesla Shanghai factory started construction last week. The signal released by the government is "China welcomes companies from all over the world to invest in China." Xingye, sharing the development opportunities of China's auto market."

The more exciting news is that, according to Reuters, global automakers plan to increase spending on electric vehicle technology by US$300 billion in the next 5 to 10 years, of which German car companies will spend US$139.5 billion. In addition to the US$71.7 billion of the US$71.7 billion, the rest will be invested in China. In addition, auto companies in the United States, Japan, France, and Sweden have also set their sights on China, making China absorb more than 45% of the related expenditures of global auto companies, reaching US$135.7 billion (including China's own US$57 billion). As a result, the auto industry is accelerating its transition away from fossil fuels and shifting its focus to Asian suppliers of battery and electric vehicle technology.

The market is becoming more and more open. Against this background, Chinese companies will face tougher market competition and better development opportunities when competing with international giants. The further expansion of reform and opening up will give priority to high-quality enterprises, drive the upgrading of mid- and low-end with high-end, and jointly develop to high-quality. This will be the main theme of the medium and long-term development of the new energy battery industry.

Chinese battery companies represented by Ningde Times and BYD have also extended their expansion overseas. Ningde Times announced the establishment of a power battery factory in Germany in 2018. BYD also announced not long ago that it is visiting Germany and the UK and plans to set up in Europe. Power battery factory. At the same time, from new energy vehicles, power batteries to battery materials and equipment, more and more domestic companies have begun to enter the international supply chain and accelerate their internationalization. With the acceleration of the localization process of Tesla, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Panasonic, etc., due to cost considerations, domestic suppliers also have more opportunities to enter their supply chains.

2. The strong will always be strong, and the oligarchs will fight

The Chinese market has become a "battlefield" for the layout of the global new energy industry, and the industrial competition pattern will change accordingly. In 2019, whether it is the international market or the domestic market, the pattern of "the strong will always be strong, and the oligarchs will fight" will become clearer.

In the international market, the situation of China, Japan and South Korea has been stable for a long time. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Panasonic, and CATL each have certain advantages, and their leading positions are stable. In addition, BYD has been the world's new energy vehicle sales champion for four consecutive years from 2015 to 2018. With the opening of its battery business, BYD is also expected to grow into an international power battery giant.

In the domestic market, Ningde Times and BYD have long occupied the first and second positions in domestic power battery installed capacity, and their total market share exceeds 60%, while the top 10 domestic power battery installed capacity companies occupy more than 80% of the market share , and with the depth of this round of reshuffle, the market share of leading companies is still expanding. It can also be seen from the 2018 investment expansion, mergers and acquisitions and reorganization, and start-of-production events of the battery network statistics that the contest among oligarchs is constantly escalating.

It is worth noting that in the new round of deep reshuffle, the "oligarchic battle" in the battery manufacturing market is also taking shape. For most small and medium-sized enterprises, there may be no chance of "the weak will always be weak", and they will be directly out of the game . Taking power batteries as an example, in the 2016-2017 reshuffle after the subsidy retreat, there are less than 100 power battery companies. Some experts predict that with the adjustment of subsidy policy and the change of power battery tax rules in 2019, by 2020, there will be only 20-30 power battery companies left, and more than 80% of the companies will be eliminated.

So, how do small and medium-sized enterprises in the new energy battery industry survive in the cracks?

Here to share a set of interesting data, "Father of Hidden Champions" and famous German management professor Hermann Simon said that in the past two decades, he has collected data from 2,734 hidden champion companies around the world. He found that Germany had 1,307 hidden champions, the most of any country. There are 366 in the United States, 220 in Japan, and only 68 in China.

A "hidden champion" is a small and medium-sized enterprise that occupies a leading position in a certain industry in the international or domestic market and owns the vast majority of the industry, but is not as well-known to the public as large well-known companies.

In my opinion, this data is underestimated, at least when it comes to the big manufacturing country - China. Because the growth rate of China's manufacturing industry exceeds international imagination, many international people do not know enough about China, and their understanding of the Chinese market is still a few years ago, or even decades ago. However, this data also reminds us that while building a unicorn company, we need to speed up the cultivation of "specialized and new", "invisible champions", "gazelle enterprises" and "shark seedling" enterprises, and this It is the opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises to survive: sugar daddies, building high walls, accumulating food, improving operational efficiency, becoming better and stronger, and competing with leading companies in a dislocation.

In addition, a total of 105 A-share companies were listed in 2018, a decrease of 76% from the previous year. In 2019, the science and technology innovation board and the trial registration system are expected to be implemented, and the channels for second-tier power battery companies to enter the capital market will be expanded.

3. The competition for resources will be positive in the long run

Since 2018, although the prices of cobalt and lithium resources have dropped sharply, under the expectation of huge mid-to-long-term market demand in the fields of new energy vehicles and energy storage, from cathode material companies to car companies and battery companies, the game for mineral resources is still ongoing Upgrade: Germany's BMW and Volkswagen are negotiating with mining companies, hoping to ensure long-term supply; Toyota and Panasonic have also announced discussions on cobalt for vehicle batteries such as pure electric vehicles, including development; Ningde Times holds a lithium mine project in Canada; BYD's deployment of lithium resource development in Chile...

Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Association of 100 Electric Vehicles, said that with the development of China's new energy vehicle industry, the cost performance of electric vehicles will exceed that of traditional fuel vehicles by 2025. By 2030, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 15 million.

Under this expectation, in order to ensure sufficient raw materials, the struggle for resources will be positive in the long run.

In terms of lithium resources, Zhang Jiangfeng, secretary-general of the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, revealed at the ABEC 2018 forum that the world's major lithium producers include China, Chile, Argentina, the United States, Australia, Russia, etc. In recent years, global lithium salt production has increased It mainly comes from China, and the world's major lithium producers have capacity expansion plans. In 2020, the lithium salt processing capacity will exceed 800,000 tons. Chinese companies are accelerating the acquisition of lithium resources around the world. Lithium salt production leaders Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have won many lithium resource mines.

In terms of cobalt resources, Chinese companies have taken the lead. The Economic Observer reported that the Democratic Republic of the Congo, located in central Africa, is the world's largest cobalt producer, and about 54% of the world's cobalt (about 66,000 tons) supply comes from it. According to statistics from British metal supplier Darton Commodities, 94% of the cobalt ore processed by Chinese companies comes from Congo. Some analysts estimate that most of the 30,000 to 40,000 tons of cobalt produced in Congo come from freelance miners, as well as Chinese-funded enterprises such as Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Industry Group Co., Ltd. and Huayou Cobalt Industry. However, Chinese intermediaries have already controlled most of the supply of freelance miners. In other words, China has dominated the export network of Congolese cobalt mines.

In terms of nickel resources, on January 11, the first overseas 50,000-ton battery-grade nickel chemical project jointly established by GEM and CATL held a groundbreaking ceremony in Indonesia. Circulation (a subsidiary of Ningde Times) and GEM, which has mastered the manufacturing technology of ternary materials, jointly invested in the construction, and implemented the great combination of upstream nickel resource core, mid-end material manufacturing and downstream power battery market, which will effectively open up the "laterite nickel ore-ternary battery Raw materials - ternary power battery" Nickel resource new energy material whole industry chain industrial system.

This project, to a certain extent, reflects that the battle for resources is developing towards the trend of upstream and downstream integration and cooperation.

The non-renewable and scarce mineral resources determine that the battle for resources will continue for a long time to come, and controlling resources has become the strategic layout and investment focus of domestic and foreign giants.

4. The smoke of refunding and subsidizing is gradually disappearing, and market-oriented competition begins

In 2019, the new policy of new energy subsidies has not yet been finalized, but the sharp decline has been set. Relevant national departments have also clarified the mechanism of "regression, adjustment, and withdrawal" of subsidy policies, and plan to completely cancel subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020.

In 2019, the smoke of reimbursement will gradually disappear, and market competition will start. Returning to the essence of the product is the key. Consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicle products has been greatly improved, but the number of new energy vehicles is still very low. According to data from the China Automobile Association, in 2018, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.27 million and 1.256 million, an increase of 59.9% and 61.7% respectively. In terms of ownership, the latest data from the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security shows that in 2018, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 2.61 million, accounting for 1.09% of the total number of vehicles.

In order to increase consumers' initiative and enthusiasm in purchasing and using new energy vehicles, product cost performance and safety are key indicators.

In terms of prices, at present, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power electrolyte, battery grade lithium carbonate, dry and wet separators, lithium iron phosphate in positive electrode materials, ternary 523, 622 and other products have reached the bottom of the stage, and there is little room for price reduction. Large, the overall price of power batteries has stabilized. At present, the above products receive national financial subsidies mainly rely on subsidies for innovation, technology, patents, etc. of science and technology, rather than financial subsidies for new energy vehicles. The impact of whether to retreat or not has little impact! In 2019, foreign-funded car companies are staking their fortunes. Cost-effective products and competitive models will be launched one after another this year. The price reduction space for domestic electric vehicles will open up, which will greatly benefit the promotion and application of new energy vehicle products!

In terms of safety, public data shows that from January 2016 to December 2018, there were 59 new energy vehicle fire accidents in my country. Among them, 33 new energy passenger vehicles caught fire; 26 new energy commercial vehicles caught fire. The main causes of electric vehicle fires are collisions, spontaneous combustion, and flooding.

Another set of data shows that due to frequent exposure of fire accidents, the State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a defect investigation on new energy vehicles. In 2018, a number of companies implemented a total of 10 recalls, involving 133,800 new energy vehicles. Among them, 121,400 vehicles were recalled due to the investigation, accounting for 91% of the total new energy recalls in 2018. The problems involved in the recalled vehicles mainly include power batteries, air bags, brakes, and electrical equipment.

To develop the new energy vehicle industry in 2019, safety should be given top priority. The good news is that at the policy level, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions attach great importance to the safety of new energy vehicles, and have carried out a number of tasks such as organizing enterprises to carry out safety hazard investigations and extensively carrying out special supervision and inspection of production consistency; in terms of enterprises, China Automotive Engineering Research The inspection data of the Academy of Science and Technology Co., Ltd. shows that in terms of safety testing of new energy vehicles, the vast majority of new energy vehicles adopt enterprise safety standards higher than national standards when designing and developing, and more than 90% of the models can pass the inspection at one time. In terms of testing of power batteries and key components, according to the test results covering more than 80% of domestic battery brands carried out in 2018, the current pass rate of single product testing exceeds 95%, and the key components with batteries as the core have good performance. safety and reliability.

5. Charging piles are upgraded to the direction of charging network, opening a new round of "horse staking"

In 2014, the state began to encourage social capital to invest in charging facilities. In October 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Energy Bureau and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)". According to the forecast of the competent authority, by 2020, the number of electric vehicles in China will reach 5 million. According to the idea of ​​"moderately advanced" and "one electric vehicle equipped with one charging pile", more than 12,000 centralized charging and swapping stations and more than 4.8 million decentralized charging piles will be built within five years. With the sharp increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, and in the absence of a clear profit model, capital has laid piles in large quantities to "enclose land", causing chaos such as vehicle piles restricting each other, fighting each other, and unequal prices.

Under the "barbaric growth", in 2018, like shared cars, charging pile companies have experienced "investment waves", "delisting waves" and "closure waves" in a state of continuous losses.

After the fierce market competition, the charging pile industry has also started an era of oligarchy competition.

According to the data released by the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, in 2018, there were 331,000 new charging infrastructure units, compared with 242,000 units in 2017, an increase of 36.8%. The ratio is nearly 3:1 (984,000 pure electric vehicles were sold in 2018), and the public charging infrastructure has grown steadily. By the end of 2018, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure nationwide was 777,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 74.2%.

From the perspective of the operation of public charging infrastructure operators, as of the end of 2018, among the 300,000 public charging infrastructures, 121,000 units were operated by special calls, 57,000 units by State Grid, 55,000 units by Star Charging, and 55,000 units by SAIC Anyue. 15,000 units, China Putian operates 14,000 units, these five operators accounted for 87.2% of the total, and the remaining operators accounted for 12.8% of the total.

It is worth noting that on the morning of December 21, 2018, four charging giants, State Grid Corporation of China, China Southern Power Grid Corporation, Telephone, and Wanbang, signed a cooperation agreement in Xiong'an New District, Hebei Province, forming a powerful alliance in the form of a joint venture company. The combination of the four giants may further intensify the trend of the strong getting stronger and accelerate the reshuffle of the charging market.

In the era of oligopoly competition, how can charging pile companies achieve profitability? The annual report on the development of China's charging infrastructure (2017-2018) pointed out that orderly charging technology focuses on solving the problem of "vehicle-pile" interaction. Charging facilities must be able to meet the interactive requirements of "vehicle-pile-network".

What is a charging network? Yu Dexiang, chairman of Terad (300001), the first stock on the GEM, said at the ABEC 2018 forum that the charging network is the infrastructure network that electric vehicles rely on for survival, and the second is the triple-network integration new energy formed by connecting the Internet of Vehicles and the Internet. The third is the value closed-loop new ecology of smart manufacturing charging operation data services, and the fourth is a new industry with two-way deep integration of new energy and new transportation.

According to the 1:1 ratio of vehicles to piles, the number of charging piles in my country is far from enough, and the charging piles must be upgraded to the charging network.

The data shows that in 2018, judging from the data of the public charging infrastructure in various provinces, regions, and municipalities, the construction area of ​​public charging infrastructure is relatively concentrated, and the construction of public charging infrastructure in accelerated development areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong accounted for 76.5%; Demonstration promotion areas and active promotion areas accounted for 23.5%.

In 2019, a large number of blank markets will inevitably trigger a new round of "staking the land" of the charging network.

6. The sense of urgency for battery recycling and cascade utilization is increasing day by day

2018 is the 10th anniversary of China's promotion of the industrialization of electric vehicles, and the power lithium battery recycling market has reached its peak for the first time. In 2019, the scale of the power battery recycling market will continue to expand, and the sense of urgency for battery recycling and cascade utilization is increasing day by day.

Gao Weiqiao, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Huayou Recycling Technology Co., Ltd., revealed at the ABEC 2018 forum that power batteries contain various recyclable materials. An electric vehicle uses an average of 50 kg of positive electrode materials, 40 kg of negative electrode materials, and 40 kg of electrolyte solution. , if China invests 100,000 lithium battery electric vehicles in 2009-2011, 5,000 tons of positive electrode materials, 4,000 tons of negative electrode materials, and 4,000 tons of electrolyte will be produced in 2014-2018; if 2 million lithium battery electric vehicles are invested in 2020 For automobiles, 100,000 tons of positive electrodes, 80,000 tons of negative electrodes, and 80,000 tons of electrolyte will be produced in 2025-2027. Once the waste power battery cannot be effectively recycled, it will not only pollute the environment seriously, but also cause a waste of resources.

Gao Weiqiao believes that the average battery life of passenger cars is 5-8 years, that of taxis and logistics vehicles is 2-4 years, and that of electric buses is 5 years. According to estimates, my country's new energy vehicle power batteries will enter a large-scale decommissioning stage starting in 2018, and the decommissioned power lithium batteries will reach 11.99GWh, including 8.85GWh of ternary batteries and 3.14GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries. In 2020, the recycling volume of power batteries will be close to 25.57Gwh (equivalent to 185,700 tons), and in 2022, the recycling volume of power batteries will be close to 45.80Gwh (equivalent to 30.98 tons). Based on the value of metals contained, the domestic power battery recycling market will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2022.

He Chunguang, director of the maintenance department of Shandong Branch of China Tower Co., Ltd., also introduced at the ABEC 2018 forum. According to relevant data, the preliminary judgment on the development trend of echelon batteries is as follows: the capacity of retired batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2020 will be 17.37 million kWh and 684 kWh respectively. 10,000 kWh, a total of 24.21 million kWh will be transferred to the cascade utilization market; after 2020, the retired battery capacity of electric vehicles will be 14.75 million kWh and 63.11 million kWh respectively, and a total of 77.86 million kWh will be transferred to the cascade utilization market.

At present, my country's power batteries are mainly ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate. According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2018, the cumulative output of power batteries in my country reached 70.6GWh, of which the cumulative production of ternary batteries was 39.2GWh, accounting for 55.5% of the total output; the cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 28.0GWh, Accounted for 39.7% of the total output; batteries of other materials accounted for 4.8%. Among the raw materials of ternary batteries, cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium, copper, aluminum, etc. have high recovery value, and high dismantling and recovery value; lithium iron phosphate batteries have high value in cascade utilization.

In terms of the recycling policy system, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released policy frameworks such as the "Implementation Plan for the Extended Producer Responsibility System" in 2017 and the "Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" in 2018, requiring producers to be responsible for battery recycling and ensure that the "source" of batteries controllable and clear whereabouts” in order to reduce the workload of recycling and dismantling; at the same time, advocate the use of PACK battery packs for cascade utilization to reduce the difficulty of recycling and improve the efficiency of the industry. Local governments have responded positively, and Shenzhen, Guangdong, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other places have successively issued specific deployments for the pilot work of recycling new energy vehicle power batteries.

The speed of corporate layout is not slow. CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Huayou Cobalt, Narada Power, GEM and other companies have also launched layouts for power battery recycling.

It is worth noting that, one of the important fields of secondary resource regeneration and recycling, there are three main bodies in the recycling of waste lead-acid batteries in China: the recycling of social groups accounts for more than 85% of the total, and the recycling of recycled lead production enterprises accounts for about 85% of the total. 8%, and the recycling volume of battery distributors is about 7%. In other words, only 15% of lead-acid batteries are recycled through regular channels.

The lessons learned from the lead-acid battery are still there. In the initial stage of the market explosion of lithium-powered batteries, more attention should be paid to the establishment of formal recycling channels.

At present, in the major industry groups, news of battery recycling is constantly popping up: "Cash recycling factory PACK factory waste lithium batteries, BC products and other lithium battery materials", "Now buy a large amount of cash for all kinds of bus battery packs and all kinds of batteries from all over the country Battery packs, waste lithium batteries, positive and negative electrodes, cobalt powder, nickel strips"... Some people in the industry pointed out that these recycling companies that send news are usually not formal channels, so they deserve everyone's vigilance.

Generally speaking, my country's power battery recycling system is being established, and relevant industry regulations, policies, and standards need to be improved. Perfect recycling channels should also be established to let consumers know the formal and convenient recycling channels.