Who will benefit from the new energy battery industry first?

2023-05-07 13:05

Industry status: The development strategy of new energy vehicles with hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles as the main driving force has become the consensus of the industry. At present, various countries, major enterprises and relevant supporting systems are striving to seize the commanding heights of the industry, and relevant investment policies, consumption subsidies and tax incentives have begun to be in place one after another. The development of new energy vehicles in our country is sent with great expectations. All levels attach great importance to the development of new energy automobile industry, and are also optimistic about the future of new energy vehicles in our country, and even the prospect of "overtaking curves", occupying the commanding heights of the global industry. Under the guidance of national policies, new energy vehicles from a situation of a hundred flowers blooming, a hundred schools of thought contend, to a state of consensus competition, especially the trial run of new energy vehicles in the taxi market, can make ordinary citizens gradually understand and accept new energy vehicles, but also conducive to new energy vehicles themselves to find problems, solve problems, to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles industry. But in view of the new energy vehicles are still in the promotion stage, for the new energy vehicle enterprises, it is difficult to contribute greater profits in the short term. The author believes that more benefit enterprises from new energy vehicle battery and supporting facilities.

Analysis of profitability of each industrial chain. The profitability of each link in the battery industry fluctuates significantly. In general, the profitability of downstream links, such as batteries and electrode materials, shows a trend of oscillating decline, which is an obvious feature of the manufacturing industry. Upstream links, such as mineral products, smelting, etc., have high correlation between profitability and raw material price fluctuations, which is an obvious feature of mining industry. Upstream links, especially those with mineral resources, have relatively high profitability. Although there are many other factors that determine the profitability of different sectors, the profitability can still slightly indicate the key sectors related to batteries, which should be the focus of investment. Under the circumstance that the new energy battery is strongly supported by the policy and strongly promoted by the rapid development of technology, and has a bright prospect, the charging station network, as a pioneer industry, has a pioneering opportunity for development. At present, State Grid has integrated electric vehicle charging stations into the unified planning of smart grid. It was the first to announce that it will build charging station network in 27 cities in China in 2010. China Southern Power Grid is also rolling out the construction of charging network on a large scale. The construction of the emerging charging station market will bring the average annual market capacity of charging equipment of 1.4 billion yuan, and the market scale of 6.8 billion yuan in the next five years. Usually, a charging station contains at least 4 fast charging stations and 16 slow charging stations. Taking Shenzhen as an example, according to Shenzhen New Energy Automobile Industry Planning, 250 charging stations and 12,500 charging piles will be built from 2009 to 2015, and a total of 500 million yuan of equipment will be purchased. Among them, the value of charging equipment is about 339 million yuan (deducting transformer and distribution equipment); If the 20 pilot cities in the country are built according to this standard and the price reduction factor is taken into account, the market capacity of the industry in the next 5 years will be about 6.8 billion yuan, with an average annual market capacity of about 1.4 billion yuan. The huge market capacity will bring abundant business opportunities for equipment providers.

Analysis of key stocks. Aoxun is the only listed company in the A-share market that can provide a complete set of solutions for power transformation and distribution, charging, monitoring and charging system. Its high frequency switching power charging module (the core component of charging station) has the largest capacity in China, leading the level, and can provide fast charging machine with a maximum charging current of 600a. In cooperation with China Southern Power Grid, the company has completed the equipment supply of two electric vehicle charging stations in Shenzhen Universiade Center and Harmony as well as 134 charging piles, which has outstanding advantages in China Southern Power Grid. In the future, the company will cooperate with State Grid to build charging stations in Tianjin, Xi 'an, Nanchang, Wuhan, Hefei and other pilot cities. The company possesses core technology, first-mover advantage and deep network resources with power companies in various provinces, which is expected to gain a large market share in the initial stage of charging network construction. The current annual revenue of the company is about 160 million yuan. Facing the annual annual revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in emerging markets, the performance is relatively flexible. The current static valuation of the stock is slightly too high, but given its good development prospects, give it an "overweight" rating.

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